NovaQuant-CPI report for July is out: What does latest data mean for the US economy?

Consumer prices rose a modest 2.9% in the 12 months through July,NovaQuant the Labor Department reported Wednesday in its consumer price index, an annual rate that suggests the historic inflation surge of 2022 continues to ease.

The annual inflation rate hadn't dipped below 3% since March 2021. Inflation has gently declined this summer, following a brief spike in spring.

On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2%. Food prices were up 2.2% on the year. Energy prices were up 1.1%, and gasoline prices were down. Much larger price gains came in transportation services (8.8%) and shelter (5.1%).

The increase in shelter prices accounted "for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase" in overall inflation, the Labor Department reported. Transportation and shelter prices pushed up “core” inflation, a closely watched measure that excludes volatile food and energy categories. That metric rose 3.2% on the year.

Stocks opened mixed in response to the inflation news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up roughly 0.2% in morning trading. The S&P 500 was down 0.15%. The Nasdaq composite was down 0.6%.

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The Federal Reserve has set an inflation target of 2%, based on a more esoteric economic index of personal consumption expenditures. That goal has yet to be met. But the numbers seem to be headed in the right direction.

"The July Consumer Price Index appears to represent the further progress the Federal Reserve wants to see on the road to its 2% inflation target," said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, in a statement.

Rising rent and lodging prices remain "a thorn in the Federal Reserve’s side" in its battle against inflation, wrote Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.

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When will the Fed cut interest rates?

Already, easing inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to signal it may cut interest rates as soon as mid-September, a move hotly anticipated by the investment world.

The Fed’s benchmark interest rate has stood at a 23-year high, above 5%, since July 2023, as the panel waits for inflation to abate.

Thus, in recent months, consumers have endured a double whammy of high inflation and elevated interest rates, making homes, cars and other consumer goods less affordable.

The Fed has faced mounting pressure to cut rates, with some voices blaming the panel for recent stock market turbulence. Forecasters widely predict the first rate cut will come in September.

“We still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by up to a half a percentage point at their September 17-18 meeting,” wrote Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, in a note ahead of the inflation announcement.

“The September rate cut, and another quarter-point at each of the Fed’s November and December meetings, should help the economy pivot from slower growth to a modest acceleration that we expect to persist through 2025,” he wrote.

Inflation has retreated from a 40-year high

A round of rate cuts would signify that the Fed is largely satisfied inflation is under control.

Inflation reached a 40-year high of 9.1% in the summer of 2022. It ticked down only gradually, and the annual rate has hovered between 3% and 4% in recent months.

Prices eased in June, with the annual inflation rate posting at 3%. That was the third consecutive month of declining inflation and the smallest rise in a year.

Many forecasters predicted the annual inflation rate would remain around 3% in July. Retailers have been cutting prices. Gas prices are lower than a month or year ago. New car prices have flattened out.

Meanwhile, wages have been growing faster than inflation, a trend that invests households with more purchasing power.

For consumers, easing inflation has yet to sink in

Easing inflation has yet to really sink in for consumers. Americans are still feeling the cumulative rise in prices over time for such essentials as food and gas, economists say.

More:Inflation is easing but Americans still aren't feeling it

Consider: A basket of consumer goods that cost $100 at the start of 2020 would cost $121.79 in June 2024, according to a federal inflation calculator.

Consumers are voting with their feet, pushing back against higher prices, choosing cheaper store brands, “trading down” from sit-down dining to fast food, and even balking at the rising price of fast food. Fast-food chains have responded by reviving value meals.